Local information and firm expectations about aggregates

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Monetary Economics
Year: 2023
Volume: 138
Issue: C
Pages: 1-13

Authors (3)

Dovern, Jonas (not in RePEc) Müller, Lena Sophia (not in RePEc) Wohlrabe, Klaus (ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institu...)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation. Variables (fixed effects) measuring local signals account for up to 26 % (47 %) of the expectation dispersion across firms. The effect is particularly strong for small firms. Our results confirm predictions of theoretical models with rational inattention.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:moneco:v:138:y:2023:i:c:p:1-13
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25