Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Central Banking
Year: 2020
Volume: 16
Issue: 5
Pages: 309-347

Authors (2)

Jonas Dovern (not in RePEc) Geoff Kenny (European Central Bank)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We exploit micro data from professional forecasters to examine the stability of the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area following the Great Recession. Although mean expectations declined somewhat, we find no evidence that the central tendency of the long-run distribution became unanchored. Also, the degree of co-movement of expectations with other variables did not increase noticeably. In contrast, long-term inflation uncertainty increased and expectations became negatively skewed. Such findings are in line with the predictions of theoretical models emphasizing the impact of the lower bound on policy rates and uncertainty about the transmission of unconventional monetary policies.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2020:q:4:a:8
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25