Stock returns in the time of COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

This paper investigates the dependence between COVID-19 shocks and stock market returns for seven countries: Canada, China, France, Germany, South Korea, the UK and the US. Using a quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression analysis, we find that all stock markets responded to COVID-19 shocks mostly negatively. However, we also observe instances where an increase in the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases resulted in higher stock returns. This unexpected positive dependence captures the much debated stock market-real economy disconnect at the time of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, although stock markets’ responses to both the global and the country-specific COVID-19 shocks are similar across countries, substantial differences also exist. In particular, stock markets in the US and China differed in their responses to the global COVID-19 shocks, with a higher degree of heterogeneity observed for the Chinese market. Finally, Asian markets reacted differently to country-specific COVID-19 shocks when compared to the US market. This finding could be explained by the fact that investors in the US stock markets may form their expectations mostly from the US COVID-19 shock, while investors in Asian countries, including China, may value more the information transmitted through the global COVID-19 shock.