A double-bounded risk-risk trade-off analysis of heatwave-related mortality risk: Evidence from India

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Year: 2024
Volume: 68
Issue: 1
Pages: 1-23

Authors (5)

Susan Chilton (not in RePEc) Darren Duxbury (Newcastle University) Irene Mussio (not in RePEc) Jytte Seested Nielsen (not in RePEc) Smriti Sharma (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.404 = (α=2.02 / 5 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Abstract As climate variability is increasing, extreme events such as temperature fluctuations are expected to become more frequent. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are especially vulnerable to heat-related variability and its ensuing impacts on mortality. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand how citizens in LMICs trade-off climate-related mortality risks with other risks such as traffic accidents, and what values they place on reducing such risks. As populations in LMICs are income-constrained, we adopt a non-monetary, risk-risk trade-off (RRTO) valuation method instead of the standard willingness-to-pay stated preference-based approach. We estimate the resulting risk premium for heatwave-related mortality risks through an adapted double-bounded, dichotomous choice approach to establish whether, on average, people value avoiding these risks more compared to reducing traffic risks. Using a sample of over 2,300 individuals from across seven states in India, a country with one of the highest heat-related mortality globally, we estimate the heatwave risk mortality premium to be between 2.2–2.9, indicating that on average, individuals weigh reducing heatwave-related mortality risks more than two times that of reducing traffic accident mortality risks. Based on a standard benefit transfer methodology for LMICs, this premium translates to a Value of Statistical Life (VSL) of USD 0.37–2.61 million for India.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:kap:jrisku:v:68:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s11166-023-09422-2
Journal Field
Theory
Author Count
5
Added to Database
2026-01-25