Cumulative Prospect Theory, Option Returns, and the Variance Premium

A-Tier
Journal: The Review of Financial Studies
Year: 2019
Volume: 32
Issue: 9
Pages: 3667-3723

Authors (5)

Lieven Baele (not in RePEc) Joost Driessen (not in RePEc) Sebastian Ebert (Frankfurt School of Finance) Juan M Londono (Federal Reserve Board (Board o...) Oliver G Spalt (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.804 = (α=2.01 / 5 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop a tractable equilibrium asset pricing model with cumulative prospect theory (CPT) preferences. Using GMM on a sample of U.S. equity index option returns, we show that by introducing a single common probability weighting parameter for both tails of the return distribution, the CPT model can simultaneously generate the otherwise puzzlingly low returns on both out-of-the-money put and out-of-the-money call options as well as the high observed variance premium. In a dynamic setting, probability weighting and time-varying equity return volatility combine to match the observed time-series pattern of the variance premium. Received May 30, 2017; editorial decision August 10, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:rfinst:v:32:y:2019:i:9:p:3667-3723.
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
5
Added to Database
2026-01-25