Π-CAPM: The Classical CAPM with Probability Weighting and Skewed Assets

A-Tier
Journal: The Review of Financial Studies
Year: 2025
Volume: 38
Issue: 12
Pages: 3497-3541

Authors (3)

Joost Driessen (not in RePEc) Sebastian Ebert (Frankfurt School of Finance) Joren Koëter (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We propose a new asset pricing model that generalizes the mean-variance framework by including probability weighting, specifically the overweighting of rare, high-impact events. Our model—the -CAPM—generates several new predictions: (i) skewness has a positive price effect, amplified by volatility; (ii) the price effect of volatility is negative for left-skewed assets but positive for right-skewed assets; and (iii) option-implied variance premiums for stocks have a U-shaped relation to skewness, amplified by volatility. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Finally, we show that the -CAPM predicts an exaggerated co-movement of assets and can explain the correlation premium.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:rfinst:v:38:y:2025:i:12:p:3497-3541.
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25