Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2016
Volume: 8
Issue: 2
Pages: 195-224

Authors (4)

Liran Einav (Stanford University) Amy Finkelstein (not in RePEc) Raymond Kluender (not in RePEc) Paul Schrimpf (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

"Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream-skimming can still exist, even in the presence of "perfect" risk scoring under a given contract. (JEL C55, G22, G28, H51, I13)

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejapp:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:195-224
Journal Field
General
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25