Learning from Manipulable Signals

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2022
Volume: 112
Issue: 12
Pages: 3995-4040

Score contribution per author:

1.609 = (α=2.01 / 5 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study a dynamic stopping game between a principal and an agent. The principal gradually learns about the agent's private type from a noisy performance measure that can be manipulated by the agent via a costly and hidden action. We fully characterize the unique Markov equilibrium of this game. We find that terminations/market crashes are often preceded by a spike in manipulation intensity and (expected) performance. Moreover, due to endogenous signal manipulation, too much transparency can inhibit learning and harm the principal. As the players get arbitrarily patient, the principal elicits no useful information from the observed signal.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:112:y:2022:i:12:p:3995-4040
Journal Field
General
Author Count
5
Added to Database
2026-01-25