Testing for a trend with persistent errors

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Econometrics
Year: 2020
Volume: 219
Issue: 2
Pages: 314-328

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop new tests for the coefficient on a time trend in a regression of a variable on a constant and time trend where there is potentially strong serial correlation. This serial correlation can also include a unit root. We obtain tests under two different assumptions on the initial value for the stochastic component of the variable being examined, either this being zero asymptotically and also allowing the initial condition to be drawn from its unconditional distribution. We find that statistics perform better under the second of these assumptions, which is the more natural assumption to make.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:econom:v:219:y:2020:i:2:p:314-328
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25