Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
The U.S. dollar price of the U.K. pound sterling is tested for a speculative bubble, defined as a period with a nonzero median in excessreturns. A nonparametric procedure is developed, which controls for data mining over the period of flexible exchange rates, and finds a negative bubble in the excess return to holding sterling rather than dollar assets during the period 1981-84. Possible interpretations arebootstrap equilibria (rational bubbles), nonsym-metric fundamentals, and nonrational expectations. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.