Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the US Unemployment Rate

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2013
Volume: 103
Issue: 2
Pages: 1054-70

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Using recent results in the measurement error literature, we show that the official US unemployment rate substantially underestimates the true level of unemployment, due to misclassification errors in the labor force status in the Current Population Survey. During the period from January 1996 to August 2011, the corrected monthly unemployment rates are between 1 and 4.4 percentage points (2.1 percentage points on average) higher than the official rates, and are more sensitive to changes in business cycles. The labor force participation rates, however, are not affected by this correction.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:2:p:1054-70
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25