GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2024
Volume: 42
Issue: 3
Pages: 984-997

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We use the information in the successive vintages of GDE and GDI to obtain an improved timely measure of U.S. aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures taking seriously their monthly release calendar. We also combine all existing overlapping comprehensive revisions to achieve further improvements. We pay particular attention to the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, which, despite producing dramatic fluctuations, did not generate noticeable revisions in previous growth rates. Our results suggest that revised GDE estimates, unlike GDI ones, are increasingly precise and receive higher weights, but early estimates retain some influence.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:42:y:2024:i:3:p:984-997
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25