No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Finance
Year: 2002
Volume: 57
Issue: 5
Pages: 2223-2261

Authors (2)

Kristin J. Forbes (Bank of England) Roberto Rigobon (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Heteroskedasticity biases tests for contagion based on correlation coefficients. When contagion is defined as a significant increase in market comovement after a shock to one country, previous work suggests contagion occurred during recent crises. This paper shows that correlation coefficients are conditional on market volatility. Under certain assumptions, it is possible to adjust for this bias. Using this adjustment, there was virtually no increase in unconditional correlation coefficients (i.e., no contagion) during the 1997 Asian crisis, 1994 Mexican devaluation, and 1987 U.S. market crash. There is a high level of market comovement in all periods, however, which we call interdependence.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:jfinan:v:57:y:2002:i:5:p:2223-2261
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25