Does Alternative Data Improve Financial Forecasting? The Horizon Effect

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Finance
Year: 2024
Volume: 79
Issue: 3
Pages: 2237-2287

Authors (3)

OLIVIER DESSAINT (not in RePEc) THIERRY FOUCAULT (HEC Paris (École des Hautes Ét...) LAURENT FRESARD (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Existing research suggests that alternative data are mainly informative about short‐term future outcomes. We show theoretically that the availability of short‐term‐oriented data can induce forecasters to optimally shift their attention from the long term to the short term because it reduces the cost of obtaining short‐term information. Consequently, the informativeness of their long‐term forecasts decreases, even though the informativeness of their short‐term forecasts increases. We test and confirm this prediction by considering how the informativeness of equity analysts' forecasts at various horizons varies over the long run and with their exposure to social media data.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:jfinan:v:79:y:2024:i:3:p:2237-2287
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25