Consensus and uncertainty in economic predictions

A-Tier
Journal: The Review of Financial Studies
Year: 2021
Volume: 34
Issue: 7
Pages: 3403-3455

Authors (3)

Hedi Benamar (not in RePEc) Thierry Foucault (HEC Paris (École des Hautes Ét...) Clara Vega (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We use clickstream data to show that investors’ demand for information about macroeconomic factors affecting the path of future interest rates is a measure of their uncertainty about this path. In particular, an increase in information demand ahead of influential economic announcements affecting investors’ beliefs about future interest rates predicts a stronger reaction of U.S. Treasury note yields to these announcements, as it should if information demand positively covaries with uncertainty. This relationship does not vanish after using standard measures of uncertainty as predictors, suggesting that clickstream data contain unique information about investors’ uncertainty.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:7:p:3403-3455.
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25