The scars of supply shocks: Implications for monetary policy

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Monetary Economics
Year: 2023
Volume: 140
Issue: S
Pages: S18-S36

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study the effects of supply disruptions - for instance due to energy price shocks or the emergence of a pandemic - in an economy with Keynesian unemployment and endogenous productivity growth. By temporarily disrupting investment, negative supply shocks generate permanent output losses - or scarring effects. By inducing a negative wealth effect, scarring effects depress aggregate demand, which may even fall below the exogenous fall in supply. However, that scarring effects depress aggregate demand does not necessarily translate into low rates of inflation. On the contrary, scarring effects may reinforce and prolong the inflationary impact of supply disruptions. A contractionary monetary policy response may end up deepening scarring effects and increasing inflation in the medium run. A successful disinflation may require a policy mix of monetary tightening and fiscal interventions aiming at supporting business investment and the economy’s productive capacity.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:moneco:v:140:y:2023:i:s:p:s18-s36
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25