Fiscal Foresight, Limited Information and the Effects of Government Spending Shocks

B-Tier
Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2014
Volume: 76
Issue: 5
Pages: 667-692

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="obes12036-abs-0001"> <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>We quantify the impact of government spending shocks in the US. Thereby, we control for fiscal foresight, a specific limited information problem (LIP) by utilizing the narrative approach. Moreover, we surmount the generic LIP inherent in vector autoregressions (VARs) by a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. We find that a positive deficit-financed defence shock raises output by more than in a VAR (e.g. 2.61 vs. 2.04 for peak multipliers). Furthermore, our evidence suggests that consumption is crowded in. These results are robust to variants of controlling for fiscal foresight and reveal the crucial role of the LIP in fiscal VARs.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:obuest:v:76:y:2014:i:5:p:667-692
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25