Modeling the daily electricity price volatility with realized measures

A-Tier
Journal: Energy Economics
Year: 2014
Volume: 44
Issue: C
Pages: 492-502

Authors (3)

Frömmel, Michael (Universiteit Gent) Han, Xing (not in RePEc) Kratochvil, Stepan (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We propose using Realized GARCH-type models to estimate the daily price volatility in the EPEX power markets. The model specifications extract the volatility-related information from realized measures, which improves the in-sample fit of the data. More importantly, evidence on the out-of-sample predictability reinforces the value of the specifications, as the forecast quality is improved over the benchmark EGARCH model under eight conventional criteria. In particular, we show that the benefit of including intraday range as a realized measure is more substantial than realized variance. All the key findings are robust under rolling-window and recursive estimation schemes, Gaussian and skewed t-distribution assumptions on the innovation process, and alternative specifications on the predictable price component.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eneeco:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:492-502
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25