Government spending multipliers in (un)certain times

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Public Economics
Year: 2021
Volume: 203
Issue: C

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption and non-residential investment. We rationalize the results empirically through a contemporaneously countercyclical response of government spending and an efficient weighting of observations inversely to their error variance. We then show that the multiplier is significantly smaller when volatility is high, consistent with theories predicting reduced effectiveness of fiscal interventions in uncertain times.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:pubeco:v:203:y:2021:i:c:s0047272721001493
Journal Field
Public
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25