Are correlations constant? Empirical and theoretical results on popular correlation models in finance

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2017
Volume: 84
Issue: C
Pages: 9-24

Authors (3)

Adams, Zeno (not in RePEc) Füss, Roland (Universität St. Gallen) Glück, Thorsten (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Multivariate GARCH models have been designed as an extension of their univariate counterparts. Such a view is appealing from a modeling perspective but imposes correlation dynamics that are similar to time-varying volatility. In this paper, we argue that correlations are quite different in nature. We demonstrate that the highly unstable and erratic behavior that is typically observed for the correlation among financial assets is to a large extent a statistical artifact. We provide evidence that spurious correlation dynamics occur in response to financial events that are sufficiently large to cause a structural break in the time-series of correlations. A measure for the autocovariance structure of conditional correlations allows us to formally demonstrate that the volatility and the persistence of daily correlations are not primarily driven by financial news but by the level of the underlying true correlation. Our results indicate that a rolling-window sample correlation is often a better choice for empirical applications in finance.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:9-24
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25