Fear of hazards in commodity futures markets

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2020
Volume: 119
Issue: C

Authors (4)

Fernandez-Perez, Adrian (not in RePEc) Fuertes, Ana-Maria (City University) Gonzalez-Fernandez, Marcos (Universidad de León) Miffre, Joelle (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We examine the commodity futures pricing role of active attention to weather, disease, geopolitical or economic threats or “hazard fear” as proxied by the volume of internet searches by 149 query terms. A long-short portfolio strategy that sorts the cross-section of commodity futures contracts according to a hazard fear signal captures a significant premium. This commodity hazard fear premium reflects compensation for extant fundamental, tail, volatility and liquidity risks factors, but it is not subsumed by them. Exposure to hazard-fear is strongly priced in the cross-section of commodity portfolios. The hazard fear premium exacerbates during periods of adverse sentiment or pessimism in financial markets.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:119:y:2020:i:c:s0378426620301680
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25