Managing price risks using and local polynomial kernel forecasts

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2009
Volume: 41
Issue: 23
Pages: 3015-3026

Authors (3)

Minkyoung Kim (not in RePEc) Philip Garcia (University of Illinois at Urba...) Raymond Leuthold (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This study contributes to understanding price risk management through hedging strategies in a forecasting context. A relatively new forecasting method, nonparametric local polynomial kernel (LPK), is used to forecast prices and to generate ex ante hedge ratios. The selective multiproduct hedge based on the LPK price and hedge ratio forecasts is in general found to be better than continuous hedging, no hedging and alternative forecasting procedures. Selective multivariate hedging using the LPK is found to improve hog producer's expected returns. The findings indicate that combining hedging with forecasts, especially when using the LPK procedure, can improve price risk management.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:23:p:3015-3026
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25