The Effects of Tax Changes on Economic Activity: A Narrative Approach to Frequent Anticipations

A-Tier
Journal: Economic Journal
Year: 2023
Volume: 133
Issue: 650
Pages: 706-727

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of anticipations of tax changes on economic activity through the release of tax news in the media in the United States. I provide a measure of anticipations by exploiting the content of television news. This information typically flows faster than standard measures of gross domestic product, thus I propose a mixed frequency dynamic factor model to estimate both the economic activity latent factor and the effects of anticipated tax shocks on it. I find that one-month-ahead anticipations of tax cuts significantly stimulate current economic activity while those of tax increases produce the opposite effect.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:econjl:v:133:y:2023:i:650:p:706-727.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25