Inflation Expectations Anchoring: New Insights from Microevidence of a Survey at High Frequency and of Distributions

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Central Banking
Year: 2025
Volume: 21
Issue: 1
Pages: 201-234

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We analyze the anchoring of long-term euro-area inflation expectations in the decade following the Global Financial Crisis, by exploring a new weekly survey, conducted among around 25 macroanalysts from 2010 to 2018. We perform a battery of tests on level expectations from the weekly survey and measures based on the distribution of inflation expectations from a quarterly survey. These include measures of uncertainty, the probability of expected long-term inflation lying between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent, and deflation risk. We find that long-term euro-area inflation expectations remained broadly anchored to the European Central Bank’s inflation aim.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2025:q:1:a:4
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25