Estimation, Inference, and Empirical Analysis for Time-Varying VAR Models

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2024
Volume: 42
Issue: 1
Pages: 310-321

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, for example, forecasting, modeling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this article introduces a new class of time-varying VAR models in which the coefficients and covariance matrix of the error innovations are allowed to change smoothly over time. Accordingly, we establish a set of asymptotic properties including the impulse response analyses subject to structural VAR identification conditions, an information criterion to select the optimal lag, and a Wald-type test to determine the constant coefficients. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the theoretical findings. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical relevance and usefulness of the proposed methods through an application on U.S. government spending multipliers.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:42:y:2024:i:1:p:310-321
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25