Measuring and forecasting retail trade in real time using card transactional data

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2021
Volume: 37
Issue: 3
Pages: 1235-1246

Authors (5)

García, Juan R. (not in RePEc) Pacce, Matías (Banco de España) Rodrigo, Tomasa (not in RePEc) Ruiz de Aguirre, Pep (not in RePEc) Ulloa, Camilo A. (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.402 = (α=2.01 / 5 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We build big data retail trade indicators for Spain using high-dimensional card transaction data from one of the country’s biggest banks. The resulting indicators replicate the dynamics of the Spanish retail trade indices (RTI), regional RTIs (Spain’s autonomous regions), and RTI by retailer type (distribution classes) released by the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The new indicators not only have a higher frequency (daily data) and higher geographical and sectorial breakdown but are also shown to improve nowcasting and forecasting power for the official RTI, making them key variables to monitor consumption.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:3:p:1235-1246
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
5
Added to Database
2026-01-25