Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates

S-Tier
Journal: Quarterly Journal of Economics
Year: 2018
Volume: 133
Issue: 1
Pages: 71-127

Authors (2)

Stefano Giglio (Yale University) Bryan Kelly (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We document a form of excess volatility that is difficult to reconcile with standard models of prices, even after accounting for variation in discount rates. We compare prices of claims on the same cash flow stream but with different maturities. Standard models impose precise internal consistency conditions on the joint behavior of long- and short-maturity claims and these are strongly rejected in the data. In particular, long-maturity prices are significantly more variable than justified by the behavior at short maturities. We reject internal consistency conditions in all term structures that we study, including equity options, currency options, credit default swaps, commodity futures, variance swaps, and inflation swaps.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:qjecon:v:133:y:2018:i:1:p:71-127.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25