International travelling and trade: further evidence for the case of Spanish wine based on fractional vector autoregressive specifications

Abstract

This article deals with the relationship between international travelling and trade. For this purpose we focus on a particular case study: the connection between the Spanish wine exports to Germany and the German travellers to Spain. Unlike previous studies we use a methodology based on fractional Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models, which permits us to compute the impulse responses in a similar way as in the standard VAR case. The results show that the orders of integration of the two series are constrained between 0 and 1, being higher for the arrivals series than for the exports. The impulse response analysis reveals that an increase in travelling produces a positive initial impact on trade though it tends to disappear in the long run.