Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
Applying a difference-in-differences framework to a census of residential property transactions in New York City 2003–17, we estimate the price effects of three flood risk signals: (1) the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which increased premiums; (2) Hurricane Sandy; and (3) new floodplain maps reflecting three decades of climate change. Estimates are negative for all three signals, and some are large: properties included in the new floodplain after escaping flooding by Sandy experienced 11% price reductions. We investigate possible mechanisms, including selection of properties into the market and residential sorting. Finding no evidence for these, we develop a parsimonious theoretical model that allows decomposition of our reduced-form estimates into the effects of insurance premium changes and belief updating. Results suggest the new maps induced belief changes comparable to those from insurance reform.