Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2020
Volume: 38
Issue: 2
Pages: 272-284

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We examine the dynamic effects of credit shocks using a large dataset of U.S. economic and financial indicators in a structural factor model. An identified credit shock resulting in an unanticipated increase in credit spreads causes a large and persistent downturn in indicators of real economic activity, labor market conditions, expectations of future economic conditions, a gradual decline in aggregate price indices, and a decrease in short- and longer-term riskless interest rates. Our identification procedure allows us to perform counterfactual experiments which suggest that credit spread shocks have largely contributed to the deterioration in economic conditions during the Great Recession. Recursive estimation of the model reveals relevant instabilities since 2007 and provides further evidence that monetary policy has partly offset the effects of credit shocks on economic activity. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:38:y:2020:i:2:p:272-284
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25