Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
In this paper we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro area that captures the complex dynamic inter-relationships between the main components of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and their determinants. The model generates accurate conditional and unconditional forecasts in real-time. We find a significant pass-through effect of oil-price shocks on core inflation and a strong Phillips curve during the Great Recession.