Dynamic multiproduct optimal hedging in the soybean complex - do time-varying correlations provide hedging improvements?

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2014
Volume: 46
Issue: 27
Pages: 3312-3322

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Optimal multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios are determined - for a soybean complex - and their risk-mitigating impact is contrasted over single-commodity time-varying and naive hedge ratios. A parsimonious regime-switching dynamic correlation model is employed, with the estimated dynamic correlation matrix among prices varying between two different levels, and the time-varying correlations being applied to the multiproduct setting. Findings obtained are three-fold. First, there is significant evidence that estimated simultaneous correlations among different commodities' prices (e.g. soybean spot and soybean meal futures) attain different values along the time series. Second, there is a substantial reduction in margin variance provided by the optimal multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios over single time-varying and naive hedge ratios, for both in- and out-of-sample data. Third, average optimal multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios for soybean and soybean meal (0.82 and 0.74, respectively; for out-of-sample data) are significantly below the naive full hedge ratio, providing risk mitigation at lower costs.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:27:p:3312-3322
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25