Diminishing Target-based GDP Manipulation: Evidence from China

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Public Economics
Year: 2025
Volume: 244
Issue: C

Authors (3)

Gong, Binlei (Zhejiang University) Shen, Yuhui (not in RePEc) Chen, Shuai (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

GDP manipulation is a prevalent form of hidden action, often arising from the principal-agent problem. Utilizing Bunching Estimation within an innovative ratio form approach, this study identifies and quantifies target-based GDP manipulation. Our empirical analysis offers evidence of such manipulation at the prefectural level in China to meet predetermined targets. However, China’s target-based GDP manipulation is diminishing over time. Furthermore, the findings suggest that reducing the weight of economic performance in local government assessments and adopting the soft target-setting restrictions have served as effective strategies to significantly mitigate China’s GDP manipulation in recent years.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:pubeco:v:244:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725000477
Journal Field
Public
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25