Measuring the Connectedness of the Global Economy

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2021
Volume: 37
Issue: 2
Pages: 899-919

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop a technique to exploit forecast error variance decompositions to evaluate the macroeconomic connectedness embedded in any multi-country macroeconomic model with an approximate vector autoregressive (VAR) representation. We apply our technique to a large global VAR model covering 25 countries and derive vivid representations of macroeconomic connectedness. We find that the US exerts a dominant influence in the global economy and that Brazil, China, and the Eurozone are also globally significant. Recursive analysis over the period of the global financial crisis shows that shocks to global equity markets are transmitted rapidly and forcefully to real trade flows and real GDP.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:2:p:899-919
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25