A predictability test for a small number of nested models

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Econometrics
Year: 2014
Volume: 182
Issue: 1
Pages: 174-185

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We introduce quasi-likelihood ratio tests for one sided multivariate hypotheses to evaluate the null that a parsimonious model performs equally well as a small number of models which nest the benchmark. The limiting distributions of the test statistics are non-standard. For critical values we consider: (i) bootstrapping and (ii) simulations assuming normality of the mean square prediction error difference. The proposed tests have good size and power properties compared with existing equal and superior predictive ability tests for multiple model comparison. We apply our tests to study the predictive ability of a Phillips curve type for the US core inflation.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:econom:v:182:y:2014:i:1:p:174-185
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25