Forecasting foreign exchange rates using idiosyncratic volatility

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2008
Volume: 32
Issue: 7
Pages: 1322-1332

Authors (2)

Guo, Hui (University of Cincinnati) Savickas, Robert (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Average idiosyncratic stock volatility forecasts the bilateral exchange rates of the US dollar against major foreign currencies in and out of sample. The US dollar tends to appreciate after an increase in US idiosyncratic volatility. Similarly, ceteris paribus, German and Japanese idiosyncratic volatilities positively and significantly correlate with future US dollar prices of the Deutsche mark and the Japanese yen, respectively. Our results suggest that exchange rates are predictable.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:7:p:1322-1332
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25