Option Return Predictability

A-Tier
Journal: The Review of Financial Studies
Year: 2022
Volume: 35
Issue: 3
Pages: 1394-1442

Authors (4)

Xintong (Eunice) Zhan (not in RePEc) Bing Han (University of Toronto) Jie Cao (not in RePEc) Qing Tong (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We uncover new return predictability in the cross-section of delta-hedged equity options. Expected returns to writing delta-hedged calls are negatively correlated with stock price, profit margin, and firm profitability, but positively correlated with cash holding, cash flow variance, new shares issuance, total external financing, distress risk, and dispersion of analysts’ forecasts. Our option portfolio strategies have annual Sharpe ratio above two and remain profitable after transaction costs. Their profits can be explained by two option factors, while equity risk factors have no explanatory power. We find support for several economic channels at work, yet the option return predictability remains puzzling.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:rfinst:v:35:y:2022:i:3:p:1394-1442.
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25