Eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
Year: 2014
Volume: 101
Issue: C
Pages: 128-140

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We evaluate a binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Prior research has shown this procedure to robustly induce risk neutrality when subjects are given a single risk task defined over objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure also induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with popular non-expected utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jeborg:v:101:y:2014:i:c:p:128-140
Journal Field
Theory
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25