Forecasting Conditional Covariance Matrices in High-Dimensional Time Series: A General Dynamic Factor Approach

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2022
Volume: 41
Issue: 1
Pages: 40-52

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 6 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Based on a General Dynamic Factor Model with infinite-dimensional factor space and MGARCH volatility models, we develop new estimation and forecasting procedures for conditional covariance matrices in high-dimensional time series. The finite-sample performance of our approach is evaluated via Monte Carlo experiments and outperforms the most alternative methods. This new approach is also used to construct minimum one-step-ahead variance portfolios for a high-dimensional panel of assets. The results are shown to match the results of recent proposals by Engle, Ledoit, and Wolf and achieve better out-of-sample portfolio performance than alternative procedures proposed in the literature.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:41:y:2022:i:1:p:40-52
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
6
Added to Database
2026-01-25