What drives economic growth forecast revisions?

Abstract

This article investigates how the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions behave across different horizons and country groups. Our main findings suggest that (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to forecast errors as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, they tend to be positively associated, suggesting a persistent perception of short‐term shocks; and (v) professional growth revisions are highly correlated.