Emerging Market Currency Excess Returns

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Year: 2011
Volume: 3
Issue: 4
Pages: 85-111

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We consider the excess return from 20 internationally tradable emerging market (EM) currencies against the US dollar. It has two contributions. First, we document stylized facts about EM currencies. EM currencies have provided significant equity-like excess returns against major currencies, but with low volatility. Picking EM currencies with a relatively high forward premium raises the portfolio return substantially. Second, our calculation incorporates institutional features of the foreign exchange market, such as lags in settling spot contracts, FX swaps, and bid/offer spreads. Transaction costs arising from bid/offer spreads are less than one-fifth of what is typically presumed in the literature. (JEL C58, F31, G15)

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejmac:v:3:y:2011:i:4:p:85-111
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25