The puzzling change in the international transmission of U.S. macroeconomic policy shocks

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of International Economics
Year: 2021
Volume: 130
Issue: C

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We demonstrate a dramatic change over time in the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks. International spillovers from US interest rate policy have had a different nature since the 1990s than they did in post-Bretton Woods period. Our analysis is based on a panel of 21 high income and emerging market economies. Prior to the 1990s, the US dollar appreciated, and ex-US industrial production declined, in response to increases in the US Federal Funds Rate, as predicted by textbook open economy models. The past decades have seen a shift, whereby increases in US interest rates depreciate the US dollar but stimulate the rest of the world economy. Results are robust to several identification methods. We sketch a simple theory of exchange rate determination in face of interest-elastic risk aversion that rationalizes these findings.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:inecon:v:130:y:2021:i:c:s0022199621000210
Journal Field
International
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25