The (un)reliability of real-time output gap estimates with revised data

C-Tier
Journal: Economic Modeling
Year: 2013
Volume: 33
Issue: C
Pages: 713-721

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper investigates the differences between real-time and ex-post output gap estimates using a newly-constructed international real-time dataset over the period from 1973:Q1 to 2012:Q3. We extend the findings in Orphanides and van Norden (2002) for the United States that the use of ex-post information in calculating potential output, not the data revisions themselves, is the major cause of the difference between real-time and ex-post output gap estimates to nine additional OECD countries. The results are robust to the use of linear, quadratic, Hodrick–Prescott, Baxter–King, and Christiano–Fitzgerald detrending methods. By using quasi real-time methods, reliable real-time output gap estimates can be constructed with revised data.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:713-721
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25