Optimal monetary policy in an estimated SIR model

B-Tier
Journal: European Economic Review
Year: 2023
Volume: 156
Issue: C

Authors (3)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper studies the design of Ramsey optimal monetary policy in a Health New Keynesian (HeNK) model with Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) agents. The nonlinear model is estimated with maximum likelihood techniques on Euro Area data. Our objective is to deconstruct the mechanism by which contagion risk affects the conduct of monetary policy. If monetary policy is the only game in town, we find that optimal policy features significant deviations from price stability to mitigate the effect of the pandemic. The best outcome is obtained when the optimal Ramsey policy is combined with a lockdown strategy of medium intensity. In this case, monetary policy can concentrate on its price stabilization objective.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eecrev:v:156:y:2023:i:c:s0014292123001319
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25