Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Year: 2020
Volume: 12
Issue: 2
Pages: 1-43

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency co-movement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive central bank information shock raises both. These two shocks have intuitive and very different effects on the economy. Ignoring the central bank information shocks biases the inference on monetary policy nonneutrality.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejmac:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:1-43
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25