Testing for Asset Price Bubbles Using Options Data

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2025
Volume: 43
Issue: 4
Pages: 807-821

Authors (3)

Nicola Fusari (not in RePEc) Robert Jarrow (Cornell University) Sujan Lamichhane (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We present a new approach to identifying asset price bubbles based on options data. We estimate asset bubbles by exploiting the differential pricing between put and call options. We apply our methodology to two stock market indexes, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, and two technology stocks, Amazon and Facebook, over the 2014–2018 sample period. We find that, while indexes do not exhibit significant bubbles, Amazon and Facebook show frequent and significant bubbles. The estimated bubbles tend to be associated with large volatility and large trading volume. Since our approach can be implemented in real time, it is useful to both policy-makers and investors.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:43:y:2025:i:4:p:807-821
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25