Inferring financial bubbles from option data

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Year: 2021
Volume: 36
Issue: 7
Pages: 1013-1046

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Financial bubbles arise when the underlying asset's market price deviates from its fundamental value. Unlike other bubble tests that use time series data and assume a reduced‐form price process, we infer the existence of bubbles nonparametrically using option price data. Under no‐arbitrage and acknowledging data constraints, we can partially identify asset price bubbles using a cross section of European option prices. In the empirical analysis, we obtain interval estimates of price bubbles embedded in the S&P 500 Index. The estimated index bubbles are then used to construct profitable momentum trading strategies that consistently outperform a buy‐and‐hold trading strategy.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:japmet:v:36:y:2021:i:7:p:1013-1046
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25