Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach

A-Tier
Journal: Energy Economics
Year: 2018
Volume: 76
Issue: C
Pages: 115-126

Authors (4)

Ji, Qiang (Chinese Academy of Sciences) Liu, Bing-Yue (not in RePEc) Nehler, Henrik (not in RePEc) Uddin, Gazi Salah (Linköpings Universitet)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainties on energy prices by measuring four types of Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (∆CoVaR) using six time-varying copulas. Three different measures of uncertainty (economic policy, financial markets and energy markets) are considered, and the magnitude and asymmetric effects of their influence are investigated. Our results suggest that there generally exists negative dependence between energy returns and changes in uncertainty. The risks of clean energy and crude oil returns are more sensitive to uncertainties in the financial and energy markets, while the impact of economic policy uncertainty is relatively weak. The upside and downside CoVaRs and ∆CoVaRs demonstrate significant asymmetric effects in response to extreme uncertainty movement. Our findings therefore have important implications for energy portfolio investment.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eneeco:v:76:y:2018:i:c:p:115-126
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25