Shock transmission between climate policy uncertainty, financial stress indicators, oil price uncertainty and industrial metal volatility: Identifying moderators, hedgers and shock transmitters

A-Tier
Journal: Energy Economics
Year: 2024
Volume: 136
Issue: C

Authors (4)

Shahbaz, Muhammad (Universytet Vizja) Sheikh, Umaid A. (not in RePEc) Tabash, Mosab I. (not in RePEc) Jiao, Zhilun (Nankai University)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This research initially examines the shock transmission from news-related Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU), the CBOE crude oil volatility index as a proxy for Oil Price Uncertainty (OPU), and global Financial Stress Indicators (FSI) such as “Credit, ““Equity-Valuation, ““Funding,” “Safe-Assets,” and “Volatility,” towards the conditional volatility of global steel, iron ore, and aluminum prices using monthly time series data spanning from January 2004 to September 2023. The study employs novel “Extended Joint” and “Frequency” domain Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto-Regression (TVP-VAR) models. Secondly, hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights are computed utilizing the DCC-GARCH-t copulas approach to investigate the potential of offsetting long-term volatility in one industrial metal through short-term positioning in another. Thirdly, this research delves into the moderating influence of CPU, OPU, and FSI on overall, short-term, and long-term volatility interconnectedness among industrial metals. Overall, the findings suggest that OPU and CPU transmit higher shocks towards aluminum and steel for both short- and long-term investment periods. However, shocks transmitted in the short term from OPU, CPU, and FSI are higher in intensity compared to the long-term period. In both short- and long-term investment periods, FSI such as “Equity Valuation,” “Funding” constraints, and transitions towards “Safer Assets” transmit higher shocks towards the conditional volatility in industrial metals. The hedge ratios and optimal portfolio selection strategies demonstrate that short-term positioning in steel provides efficient hedging against long-term volatility in aluminum and iron ore. Finally, the positive moderating impact of OPU on volatility interconnectedness between industrial metals has several practical implications for stakeholders.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eneeco:v:136:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324004407
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25