Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
The Fed and the market often disagree about the path of interest rates. We measure this disagreement using gaps between the Greenbook and the Blue Chip forecasts for future three-month Treasury rates. We decompose this disagreement using the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition. Our empirical results show that different perceptions about the Taylor rule can contribute substantially to the disagreement.